A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
